Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd95…8c17 world 311 markets active 16d ago coverage 169d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 168d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,565 (+3%) realized +$22,111 · open −$7,546
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate52%184W / 167L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,659per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 169d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$24,590
other 16% +$930
finance 4% −$1,985
politics 4% −$3,777
tech 4% −$5,923
sports 1% +$413
culture 1% −$620
weather 0% +$11
economics 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -92.0% -92.7% 2% 2% -87.9%
≤30d 67 -74.9% -77.3% 10% 9% -64.9%
≤90d 111 -28.0% -34.9% 30% 24% -20.1%
all 351 +12.4% +1.7% 52% 26% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.7% 26% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -8.1% 19% -15.4%
15% -16.9% 15% -23.6%
20% -25.1% 11% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$1,333) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$402 vs −$467 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$1,456
Realized+$22,111
Unrealized−$7,546
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses184 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)351 / 311
History coverage169d ⚠
Avg bet$1,659
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 37¢ 16¢ $1,105 $465 −$640 (-58%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 40¢ 14¢ $1,221 $441 −$781 (-64%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 31¢ 10¢ $954 $294 −$659 (-69%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $509 $140 −$369 (-73%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 3¢ $1,861 $58 −$1,803 (-97%)
Tucker Carlson federally charged? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $300 $15 −$285 (-95%)
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $43 $10 −$33 (-77%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 2¢ $205 $8 −$197 (-96%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $140 $7 −$133 (-95%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 81¢ 1¢ $405 $7 −$398 (-98%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $794 $4 −$790 (-100%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $403 $3 −$400 (-99%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 48¢ 2¢ $48 $2 −$46 (-97%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $34 $1 −$32 (-96%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $737 $1 −$736 (-100%)
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $244 $1 −$244 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 21? Jun 29 $132 −$250 -190%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Jun 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jun 29 $1,072 −$4,891 -456%
Will Ethena reach $0.60 in November? Jun 29 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin above $116K on September 3? Jun 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 29 $70 −$9 -13%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on November 5? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? Jun 29 $1,900 −$3,036 -160%
US forces in Venezuela by October 31? Jun 29 $266 −$471 -177%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25? Jun 29 $83 −$153 -183%
Bitcoin above $114K on September 3? Jun 29 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Jun 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on November Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Jun 29 $220 −$220 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 20? Jun 29 $368 −$368 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? Jun 29 $182 −$182 -100%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by September 30? Jun 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 29? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 29 $431 −$431 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Jun 29 $1,189 −$6,667 -561%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1? Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21? Jun 29 $535 −$535 -100%
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025? Jun 29 $327 −$327 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Jun 29 $528 +$1,383 +262%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Jun 29 $901 −$901 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24? Jun 29 $55 −$314 -570%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Jun 29 $219 −$219 -100%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? Jun 29 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Jun 29 $124 −$124 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by September 30? Jun 29 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Trump say "Tren de Aragua" this week? (December 1 - 7) Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 31 or later? Jun 29 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Ethena reach $0.70 in November? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 3PM ET Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Israel strike 4 or more countries in November 2025? Jun 29 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in November 2025? Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Jun 29 $58 −$58 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jun 29 $219 −$219 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 19? Jun 29 $189 −$189 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Jun 29 $1,703 −$2,128 -125%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2? Jun 29 $459 −$609 -133%
Will Ethena reach $0.50 in November? Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26? Jun 29 $763 −$763 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $2 16d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $59 16d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL Yes 57¢ $56 16d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $151 16d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $517 16d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $19 17d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $64 17d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $82 17d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $279 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $378 17d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $19 17d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $279 17d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 23¢ $762 18d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $285 18d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $42 18d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $914 18d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $751 18d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $31 19d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $108 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $53 21d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $350 21d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $147 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,456.43 · official $1,456.43 (match) · 3500 history records