Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd95…cb21 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,239 (-35%) realized −$1,225 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$712now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$697
7 days−$67
14 days−$67
30 days−$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$315
sports 38% −$928
crypto 1% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -7.3% -16.2% 45% 40% -12.2%
≤30d 24 -22.8% -30.1% 38% 33% -27.6%
≤90d 24 -22.8% -30.1% 38% 33% -27.6%
all 24 -22.8% -30.1% 38% 33% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 33% -27.6%
10% -36.8% 33% -34.5%
15% -42.9% 33% -40.8%
20% -48.5% 25% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$108 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$712
Realized−$1,225
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage15d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $448 $452 +$4 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 54¢ 52¢ $218 $214 −$4 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $60 $46 −$14 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $275 +$108 +39%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $42 −$41 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $260 +$681 +262%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $178 +$102 +57%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $360 −$356 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $252 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $183 −$180 -99%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 +$23 +149%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $71 +$29 +41%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$43 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $89 −$88 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $301 −$267 -89%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $54 +$60 +112%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$18 +206%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $114 −$113 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $128 −$126 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $10 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $28 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $30 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $101 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $226 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $226 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $53 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $9 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $222 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $42 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 27¢ $260 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $280 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 64¢ $51 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 64¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 64¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 62¢ $34 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 62¢ $63 3d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $251 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 80¢ $252 3d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 68¢ $108 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $20 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $711.56 · official $711.56 (match) · 80 history records