Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:41:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd94…de6f crypto 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 561d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-4%) realized −$90 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate90%164W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$125
crypto 19% +$7
tech 17% −$1
sports 9% +$16
world 9% +$9
weather 7% +$1
politics 6% −$1
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 19 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 81 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 4% -6.8%
all 183 -3.6% -12.8% 90% 13% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 13% -13.1%
10% -21.1% 9% -21.4%
15% -28.7% 7% -29.0%
20% -35.7% 2% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

561d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses164 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage561d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 98¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $116 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro May 31 $9 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $30 $0 +1%
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 28 $59 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $58 +$8 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $56 +$1 +3%
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $59 $0 +0%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 05 $97 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $60 end of April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will BNB dip to $300 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 05 $38 +$6 +16%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 26 $3 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $37 +$8 +20%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 14 $74 +$2 +2%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 23d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 26d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $30 28d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 99¢ $30 28d
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 29d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $58 32d
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 34d
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $5 35d
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $58 40d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 97¢ $56 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 42d
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 46d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 46d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 46d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 47d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 48d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 48d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 49d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $4 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 50d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 50d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $3 50d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 51d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro BUY No 100¢ $5 51d
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.73 · official $95.73 (match) · 675 history records