Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd8f…04a0 crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-4%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%37W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day147.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -13.9% -22.1% 48% 48% -11.8%
≤30d 77 -13.9% -22.1% 48% 48% -11.8%
≤90d 77 -13.9% -22.1% 48% 48% -11.8%
all 77 -13.9% -22.1% 48% 48% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 48% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 48% -20.3%
15% -36.3% 47% -28.0%
20% -42.6% 43% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses37 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day147.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$8 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$13 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$17 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $18 +$14 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$9 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $46 +$29 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $67 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $36 +$22 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $36 −$34 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $47 +$33 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$28 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$24 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$13 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$30 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$23 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $29 +$28 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$8 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $49 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $14 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $45 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 210 history records