Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd8f…4dc1 sports 821 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$34,269 (-14%) realized −$34,278 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate94%744W / 49L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$13,910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$5,041
other 17% +$220
world 13% +$642
politics 11% +$793
crypto 2% +$69
economics 1% +$60
culture 1% +$11
weather 1% +$200
tech 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 3% -9.9%
≤30d 130 -1.2% -10.6% 96% 8% -11.9%
≤90d 526 +2.3% -7.5% 95% 6% -9.3%
all 793 +1.3% -8.4% 94% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 7% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.1% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$137 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$13,910
Realized−$34,278
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses744 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions28
Markets (closed)793 / 821
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$300
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 793 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $3,048 $3,193 +$146 (+5%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 90¢ 99¢ $2,320 $2,546 +$226 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $1,842 $1,773 −$69 (-4%)
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,740 $1,740 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $805 $847 +$42 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 88¢ $542 $531 −$11 (-2%)
Will OpTic Texas finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? Yes 99¢ 80¢ $561 $455 −$106 (-19%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $390 $399 +$9 (+2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 87¢ $369 $348 −$21 (-6%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) England 99¢ 100¢ $336 $338 +$2 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 78¢ $320 $314 −$6 (-2%)
Will Los Angeles Thieves finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $274 $279 +$5 (+2%)
Will FaZe Vegas finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? Yes 99¢ 58¢ $415 $244 −$171 (-41%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $173 $173 +$0 (+0%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 96¢ 100¢ $129 $134 +$5 (+4%)
Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists Yes 100¢ 96¢ $107 $103 −$4 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots Yes 100¢ 100¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Yes 100¢ 98¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-2%)
Rafael Leão: 1+ shots No 99¢ 100¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Harry Kane: 4+ shots Yes 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Noni Madueke: 1+ shots Yes 98¢ 99¢ $33 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Boston Breach finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 98¢ 52¢ $48 $25 −$22 (-47%)
Harry Kane: 3+ shots Yes 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rafael Leão: 5+ shots Jun 17 $37 $0 +1%
Rafael Leão: 2+ shots Jun 17 $57 +$1 +1%
Rafael Leão: 3+ shots Jun 17 $57 +$1 +1%
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists Jun 17 $471 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $34 +$1 +3%
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $61 $0 +0%
Pedro Neto: 2+ assists Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Samu Costa: 3+ goals Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,597 +$3 +0%
Christoph Baumgartner: 2+ goals Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Christoph Baumgartner: 3+ goals Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $98 +$2 +3%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Foster Griffin: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Ali Al Hamadi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $197 +$3 +2%
Ryan O'Hearn: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Shea Langeliers: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Lawrence Butler: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Gabriel Moreno: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Zach Neto: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $507 −$460 -91%
Kevin McGonigle: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Gleyber Torres: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Isaac Paredes: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Zach McKinstry: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Kerry Carpenter: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Spencer Torkelson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Jose Altuve: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Matt McLain: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Nathaniel Lowe: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $92 +$2 +3%
Eugenio Suárez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Eugenio Suárez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Blake Dunn: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Jared Young: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Curtis Mead: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Luis García Jr.: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Andrew Alvarez: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Jacob Young: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Jac Caglianone: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists BUY Yes 100¢ $107 24m
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $593 26m
Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $85 27m
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $1,147 33m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $156 52m
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $65 54m
Harry Kane: 4+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $45 56m
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 56m
Noni Madueke: 1+ shots BUY Yes 98¢ $33 1h
Harry Kane: 3+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $17 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $99 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $99 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $99 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $173 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $40 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 100¢ $76 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 100¢ $24 2h
Pedro Neto: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $65 3h
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists BUY Yes 100¢ $471 3h
Pedro Neto: 1+ shots BUY No 99¢ $7 3h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $26 3h
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $61 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 97¢ $34 3h
Rafael Leão: 5+ shots BUY No 99¢ $37 3h
Rafael Leão: 3+ shots BUY No 99¢ $57 3h
Rafael Leão: 2+ shots BUY No 99¢ $57 3h
Rafael Leão: 1+ shots BUY No 99¢ $57 3h
Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $7 3h
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $200 4h
Samu Costa: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $7 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,909.62 · official $13,925.66 (match) · 3500 history records