Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:34:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd8f…1f24 crypto 1038 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 255d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$420 (-0%) realized −$371 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%953W / 76L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$12
14 days+$28
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$488
weather 13% −$787
other 0% −$11
finance 0% −$131
tech 0% −$6
sports 0% +$1
politics 0% −$48
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +1.1% -8.5% 91% 3% -9.4%
≤30d 187 -3.9% -13.1% 86% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 581 -3.4% -12.6% 90% 0% -10.0%
all 1029 -2.0% -11.4% 93% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$16 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$899
Realized−$371
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses953 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1029 / 1038
History coverage256d ⚠
Avg bet$404
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1029 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $580 $578 −$2 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $112 $112 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 98¢ $50 $98 +$48 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $25B by December 31? No 88¢ 87¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31? No 78¢ 79¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+83%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 2¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-96%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arc FDV above $10B one day after launch? Jun 19 $0 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $501 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $583 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $97 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $352 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $361 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Arc FDV above $7B one day after launch? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $366 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $470 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $237 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $553 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $528 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $504 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $649 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $439 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $317 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $317 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $134 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $355 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $716 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $402 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $319 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $229 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $236 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $249 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $13 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $86 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Arc FDV above $10B one day after launch? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5h
Arc FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $51 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $11 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $501 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $534 32h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $49 32h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $205 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $500 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $85 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $101 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $97 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $22 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $361 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $352 2d
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $25B by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $17 2d
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $898.80 · official $898.80 (match) · 3448 history records