Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd8d…5022 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-9%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$11
sports 48% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -40.1% -45.8% 38% 38% -19.5%
≤30d 8 -40.1% -45.8% 38% 38% -19.5%
≤90d 8 -40.1% -45.8% 38% 38% -19.5%
all 8 -40.1% -45.8% 38% 38% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.8% 38% -19.5%
10% -51.0% 38% -27.2%
15% -55.7% 38% -34.2%
20% -60.0% 25% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq to win the second half? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 +$12 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $9 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $21 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 3h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 98¢ $32 5h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 6h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records