Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CD 0xcd8c…b750 crypto 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,140 (+9%) realized +$5,140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%27W / 65L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$602per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$7,473
other 22% +$15,762
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -0.8% -10.3% 33% 33% +34.8%
≤30d 92 -18.7% -26.4% 29% 28% +8.7%
≤90d 92 -18.7% -26.4% 29% 28% +8.7%
all 92 -18.7% -26.4% 29% 28% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 28% +8.7%
10% -33.4% 25% -1.7%
15% -39.9% 25% -11.2%
20% -45.8% 22% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$950) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -57% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,437 vs −$469 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses27 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage30d
Avg bet$602
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,500 +$7,753 +517%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,500 +$1,880 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $502 −$479 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $501 −$485 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $501 +$938 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $501 −$484 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $401 −$390 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1,020 −$997 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1,000 −$974 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $512 +$96 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $503 −$477 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $500 +$584 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $501 +$574 +114%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $500 −$487 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1,500 −$1,461 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,100 +$13,145 +1195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $244 −$233 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $2,005 −$1,945 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $500 −$356 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4,102 −$887 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,903 +$787 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,206 +$688 +57%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,500 −$1,462 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2,003 −$1,291 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,004 −$838 -83%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,000 −$973 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,004 +$2,033 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,001 +$580 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,191 +$2,650 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$190 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $641 +$744 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $501 −$450 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $419 +$709 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $425 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $601 −$581 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $401 +$173 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1,401 −$1,343 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $501 −$83 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$77 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $502 +$785 +156%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $130 −$126 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 64¢ $9,253 59m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 35¢ $3,380 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $204 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $297 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $501 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,439 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $501 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $313 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $188 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $401 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $614 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $886 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,500 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,020 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,000 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 15¢ $608 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $207 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $296 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,084 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $500 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1,076 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $453 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $48 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $500 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $512 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 232 history records