Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd8a…2765 crypto 413 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$31 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate91%368W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$273
14 days−$273
30 days−$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$165
other 28% −$218
world 16% +$38
sports 9% −$38
finance 8% −$18
politics 4% +$23
culture 2% +$8
tech 1% +$7
economics 1% −$26
weather 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -73.6% -76.1% 25% 0% -88.1%
≤30d 15 -24.6% -31.8% 67% 0% -47.8%
≤90d 318 -2.2% -11.5% 89% 3% -10.7%
all 406 -1.2% -10.6% 91% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -10.0%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses368 / 38
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)406 / 413
History coverage118d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Eminem perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 97¢ 97¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anuel AA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 96¢ 96¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 98¢ 94¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No 92¢ 87¢ $37 $36 −$2 (-5%)
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 98¢ 57¢ $37 $22 −$15 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Walsh be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? Jun 18 $39 +$2 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 01 $40 +$2 +4%
Will RED Canids win CBLOL 2026 Split 1? Jun 01 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 01 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Den May 29 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $29 +$1 +2%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? May 20 $38 $0 +1%
Will Latonya Reeves be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? May 20 $36 $0 +1%
Will Hasbro (HAS) beat quarterly earnings? May 19 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? May 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Governme May 17 $39 $0 +1%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Amy Phan West advance from the CA-45 primary election? May 16 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nat May 13 $38 +$5 +12%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government May 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $28 +$3 +11%
Will Rodez AF achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-2 May 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Gove May 12 $39 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, May 10 $40 +$1 +3%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April? May 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 10 $38 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will BW Industrial Holdings not IPO before June 2026? May 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NB May 09 $26 $0 +2%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele May 08 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Carolina Hurricanes advance to the Conference Finals of the 2026 May 08 $29 +$1 +2%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 08 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Encore Medical’s market cap be between $45M and $50M at market cl May 08 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 07 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? May 07 $28 +$1 +2%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $84 in May? May 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 06 $47 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 06 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori end in a draw? May 06 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10? May 06 $27 +$3 +13%
Will Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC end in a draw? May 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre end in a draw? May 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Nara Club vs. FC Ōsaka end in a draw? May 06 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $76 +$9 +11%
Will Tochigi City FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $38 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will George Walsh be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? SELL No 100¢ $41 3h
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $49 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 96¢ $45 5d
Will Anuel AA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 99¢ $2 13d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 14d
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark? SELL No 100¢ $42 16d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $3 17d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $1 17d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $5 17d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $9 17d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $5 17d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $12 17d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $1 17d
Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? SELL No 91¢ $28 18d
Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Den SELL No 96¢ $40 19d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $30 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $16 28d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $39 29d
Will Latonya Reeves be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? SELL No 90¢ $37 29d
Will Hasbro (HAS) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 96¢ $39 30d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Governme SELL Yes 95¢ $39 32d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 32d
Will Amy Phan West advance from the CA-45 primary election? SELL No 98¢ $41 32d
Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e SELL No 91¢ $37 35d
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nat SELL No 94¢ $8 35d
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nat SELL No 99¢ $34 35d
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government SELL Yes 92¢ $40 36d
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? SELL No 100¢ $31 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.76 · official $271.76 (match) · 1172 history records