Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcd81…2ba2 world 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized +$49 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$22
other 25% +$2
sports 25% +$67
crypto 9% −$1
politics 8% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 12 -1.6% -10.9% 33% 0% -8.7%
all 12 -1.6% -10.9% 33% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -8.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -17.5%
15% -27.2% 0% -25.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$6 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage78d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $384 $386 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Jun 26 $391 −$13 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $386 $0 +0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $394 $0 +0%
Maduro guilty of all counts? Jun 19 $299 $0 +0%
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5) Jun 10 $489 +$41 +8%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 09 $487 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? May 12 $369 −$7 -2%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Apr 26 $21 −$6 -29%
Spread: Mazatlán FC (-2.5) Apr 15 $347 +$4 +1%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr Apr 12 $422 −$1 -0%
Spread: FC Porto (-2.5) Apr 10 $299 +$22 +7%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 09 $307 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $385 1h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? SELL No 90¢ $378 1h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 3h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? BUY No 93¢ $372 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $387 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $386 20h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL No 95¢ $394 20h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 95¢ $394 22h
Maduro guilty of all counts? SELL No 92¢ $299 6d
Maduro guilty of all counts? BUY No 92¢ $299 7d
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5) BUY Cambodia 92¢ $489 17d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $487 17d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $487 17d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 45d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 45d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 45d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 45d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 45d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 45d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 45d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 96¢ $96 45d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $369 45d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 61d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $10 61d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $13 62d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $8 62d
Spread: Mazatlán FC (-2.5) BUY Pumas de la UNAM 99¢ $248 74d
Spread: Mazatlán FC (-2.5) BUY Pumas de la UNAM 99¢ $99 74d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr SELL No 94¢ $2 74d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr SELL No 95¢ $321 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.17 · official $386.17 (match) · 39 history records