Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:56:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd7f…98e4 other 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%14W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$34
politics 22% −$19
sports 19% −$12
crypto 9% −$3
finance 5% −$9
economics 4% −$2
world 4% −$3
culture 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 75 -0.8% -10.2% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 158 -0.6% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 171 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 157
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage100d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $335 −$3 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $94 −$1 -1%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ Jun 16 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $169 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $158 −$2 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $58 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $52 −$1 -2%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $47 +$1 +1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $120 −$2 -2%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $56 −$1 -3%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $50 −$1 -2%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $248 −$1 -0%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 09 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $108 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $201 −$2 -1%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 06 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 05 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 05 $48 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $94 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $6 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $111 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $51 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $222 −$1 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $59 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 2h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 8h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $42 9h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $42 13h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 13h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 21h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 22h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 30h
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $54 30h
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $54 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $48 36h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $49 40h
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL No 95¢ $47 41h
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ BUY No 97¢ $48 45h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 45h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $58 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $58 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $64 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $65 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $55 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $55 3d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $57 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.40 · official $42.40 (match) · 678 history records