Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd7d…63ab crypto 86 markets active 2d ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$314 (-8%) realized −$314 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%19W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$1,044
other 24% −$113
politics 1% +$2
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 58 -25.3% -32.4% 24% 21% -56.5%
≤90d 70 -33.3% -39.7% 23% 19% -57.2%
all 86 -8.1% -16.8% 22% 19% -47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 19% -47.5%
10% -24.8% 17% -52.5%
15% -32.1% 12% -57.1%
20% -38.7% 8% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$21 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$314
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses19 / 67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage221d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $24 −$10 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $44 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$8 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$13 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $29 −$17 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$24 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $55 −$28 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$13 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $60 −$46 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$24 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $73 −$62 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $99 +$38 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $132 −$86 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $91 −$58 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $119 +$46 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $86 −$82 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$49 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $153 −$57 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $90 −$17 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $38 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $107 −$66 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $45 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 543 history records