Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:26:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcd78…5df4 world 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,124 (-25%) realized −$1,542 · open −$582
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$477per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$267
politics 32% −$997
other 24% −$1,388
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-59.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -65.3% -68.6% 0% 0% -95.0%
all 16 -55.4% -59.6% 19% 6% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.6% 6% -31.0%
10% -63.5% 6% -37.6%
15% -67.0% 6% -43.7%
20% -70.3% 6% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$858 vs −$316 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$1,528
Realized−$1,542
Unrealized−$582
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage362d
Avg bet$477
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 89¢ 63¢ $2,000 $1,412 −$588 (-29%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 25¢ 26¢ $110 $117 +$7 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Apr 22 $29 −$9 -31%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? Apr 21 $333 −$333 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026? Mar 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tim Walz drop out by January 6? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Mar 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Starmer out in 2025? Mar 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $1,000 +$2,520 +252%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $500 +$17 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? Feb 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Jan 06 $409 −$76 -19%
Macron out in 2025? Jan 04 $500 +$38 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Sep 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Sep 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Sep 02 $700 −$700 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Sep 02 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $113 1h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 89¢ $2,009 18d
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 112d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 113d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $520 113d
Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $224 165d
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $220 165d
Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $109 165d
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 165d
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $76 165d
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 165d
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $409 165d
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 167d
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 167d
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 167d
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 167d
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 167d
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $18 167d
Will Tim Walz drop out by January 6? BUY No 10¢ $100 167d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $4 168d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 168d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $26 168d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $15 168d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,000 168d
Starmer out in 2025? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,000 278d
Macron out in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $500 278d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit BUY Yes 25¢ $100 361d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit BUY Yes 38¢ $100 361d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,528.34 · official $1,528.56 (match) · 49 history records