Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

CD 0xcd78…4512 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$21 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown45%max

Avg bet$151per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-10.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-1.4%	-10.8%	20%	0%	-8.4%
≤30d	5	-1.4%	-10.8%	20%	0%	-8.4%
≤90d	5	-1.4%	-10.8%	20%	0%	-8.4%
all	5	-1.4%	-10.8%	20%	0%	-8.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.8%	0%	-8.4%
10%	-19.3%	0%	-17.2%
15%	-27.1%	0%	-25.2%
20%	-34.3%	0%	-32.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$5 · ×4.97 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$67

Realized+$21

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage7d

Avg bet$151

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown45%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$75	$67	−$7 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Jun 18	$73	$0	+0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026?	Jun 17	$67	−$2	-4%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	Jun 17	$61	−$5	-8%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors?	Jun 11	$341	+$25	+7%
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	Jun 11	$287	−$8	-3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$36	1h
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$38	1h
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	SELL Yes	8¢	$73	1h
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$36	2h
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$38	2h
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026?	SELL Yes	7¢	$64	18h
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026?	BUY Yes	7¢	$33	19h
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026?	BUY Yes	7¢	$34	19h
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	SELL Yes	6¢	$56	19h
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	BUY Yes	6¢	$30	21h
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	BUY Yes	6¢	$31	21h
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors?	BUY No	93¢	$341	6d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	SELL No	87¢	$279	6d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	BUY No	89¢	$287	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.15 · official $67.15 (match) · 15 history records