Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CD 0xcd78…2770 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$127 (+32%) realized +$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$81
sports 36% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +45.7% +31.8% 86% 86% +27.1%
≤30d 7 +45.7% +31.8% 86% 86% +27.1%
≤90d 7 +45.7% +31.8% 86% 86% +27.1%
all 7 +45.7% +31.8% 86% 86% +27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.8% 86% +27.1%
10% +19.2% 86% +14.9%
15% +7.7% 71% +3.8%
20% -2.9% 29% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$30 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.63 per $1 lost it wins $5.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $61 +$25 +42%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$19 +37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$76 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 +$6 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$34 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 1h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 79¢ $50 3h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL 99¢ $69 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 71¢ $50 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records