Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd74…0b8d other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$231 (-18%) realized −$231 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$289
7 days−$289
14 days−$289
30 days−$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$155
sports 21% −$113
world 13% −$100
weather 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-71.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 20 -68.9% -71.9% 10% 10% -39.7%
all 20 -68.9% -71.9% 10% 10% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.9% 10% -39.7%
10% -74.6% 10% -45.5%
15% -77.0% 10% -50.8%
20% -79.3% 5% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$46 · ×4.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 18
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage78d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $96 −$94 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $99 −$96 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $154 −$105 -68%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $164 +$436 +265%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Vitória SC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 8? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 8? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $20 −$19 -97%
Military action against Iran ends on April 19, 2026? Apr 07 $5 −$3 -53%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 07 $10 +$4 +42%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2 and 2.25 million views in the fi Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 07 $70 −$23 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $96 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $51 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $50 21h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Sco BUY 27¢ $29 25h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND BUY $21 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Iraq t BUY 10¢ $51 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $99 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on BUY $52 7d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes $103 48d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes $51 50d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes $43 50d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 50d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 53¢ $382 50d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 50d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 12¢ $218 50d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes $51 50d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes $10 50d
Will Vitória SC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes $10 50d
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes $10 50d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes $10 50d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes $3 76d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No $11 76d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes $55 77d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 77d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes $10 77d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No $5 77d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No $14 77d
Military action against Iran ends on April 19, 2026? SELL Yes $2 77d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL Yes $14 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records