Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcd74…00a1 sports 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,885 (+25%) realized +$3,739 · open +$146
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%46W / 38L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$976now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$3,317
other 8% +$442
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +2.5% -7.2% 55% 48% +12.5%
≤30d 84 +2.5% -7.2% 55% 48% +12.5%
≤90d 84 +2.5% -7.2% 55% 48% +12.5%
all 84 +2.5% -7.2% 55% 48% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 48% +12.5%
10% -16.1% 44% +1.7%
15% -24.2% 39% -8.1%
20% -31.7% 35% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$87 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$976
Realized+$3,739
Unrealized+$146
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses46 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions8
Markets (closed)84 / 92
History coverage6d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 59¢ 100¢ $300 $508 +$208 (+69%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Genaro Alberto Olivieri 85¢ 70¢ $425 $350 −$75 (-18%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 37¢ 44¢ $41 $48 +$7 (+18%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 85¢ 82¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Florian Broska 52¢ 100¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+92%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 64¢ 56¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 73¢ 57¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Ignacio Buse 25¢ 44¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $1,013 +$105 +10%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $39 +$13 +33%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $20 −$19 -98%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $16 +$12 +74%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $222 −$21 -9%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $11 +$9 +83%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $309 +$226 +73%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $140 +$165 +118%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $77 +$72 +93%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $2 +$3 +188%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $72 +$9 +12%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $173 −$170 -98%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $913 +$807 +88%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $373 −$365 -98%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $398 +$109 +27%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $143 +$375 +262%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $627 +$389 +62%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $981 +$29 +3%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $21 +$1 +7%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $567 +$433 +76%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 12 $19 +$11 +54%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $213 +$127 +60%
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $707 +$338 +48%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $119 +$81 +67%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $598 +$536 +90%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $446 +$70 +16%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $174 +$506 +291%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $3 +$2 +83%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $104 −$102 -98%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $537 +$463 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 85¢ $6 5m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 85¢ $427 11m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 49¢ $2 11m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 25¢ $1 18m
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 85¢ $9 22m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 98¢ $10 48m
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Florian Broska 52¢ $7 1h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 71¢ $7 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 93¢ $110 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 90¢ $903 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 75¢ $39 1h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 73¢ $4 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 27¢ $21 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 25¢ $15 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 61¢ $9 3h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 45¢ $5 4h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 37¢ $41 17h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 23¢ $20 17h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 50¢ $28 18h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 46¢ $3 18h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Coleman Wong 38¢ $7 19h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Nuria Brancaccio 18¢ $92 19h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 51¢ $4 19h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Sachia Vickery 98¢ $49 21h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 98¢ $10 23h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 34¢ $6 23h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 59¢ $304 23h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 46¢ $5 43h
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald BUY Mackenzie McDonald 96¢ $193 45h
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 36¢ $28 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $975.62 · official $975.62 (match) · 170 history records