Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd73…663f crypto 2000 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$166 (+1%) realized +$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate70%1497W / 647L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day59.7pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$916
7 days−$850
14 days−$280
30 days+$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$848
other 6% −$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 591 -45.2% -50.4% 43% 30% -33.1%
≤30d 1652 -11.3% -19.7% 68% 49% -7.7%
≤90d 2144 -9.3% -17.9% 70% 50% -10.6%
all 2144 -9.3% -17.9% 70% 50% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 50% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 27% -19.2%
15% -33.0% 16% -27.0%
20% -39.5% 11% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1497 / 647
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2144 / 2000
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day59.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2144 Trades
no open positions (496 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $23 4m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $81 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $92 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $77 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $89 6h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 8h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $86 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 9h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.84 · official $4.84 (match) · 3500 history records