Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 23 History 151 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6,932
14 days+$119,660
30 days+$172,898
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $104,828 $113,390 +$8,562 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 82¢ $64,198 $73,800 +$9,602 (+15%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 75¢ 86¢ $42,443 $48,875 +$6,432 (+15%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 64¢ 57¢ $16,126 $14,375 −$1,751 (-11%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $13,555 $13,943 +$388 (+3%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $12,791 $12,565 −$226 (-2%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? No 82¢ 98¢ $10,119 $12,018 +$1,899 (+19%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 97¢ $10,833 $11,016 +$183 (+2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $10,600 $10,756 +$157 (+1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $9,670 $9,835 +$165 (+2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 60¢ $7,833 $9,746 +$1,914 (+24%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 75¢ 90¢ $8,086 $9,652 +$1,565 (+19%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 76¢ 98¢ $7,037 $9,089 +$2,051 (+29%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No 82¢ 97¢ $7,615 $9,037 +$1,422 (+19%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 49¢ 44¢ $7,400 $6,675 −$725 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 32¢ 24¢ $6,125 $4,729 −$1,396 (-23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $4,200 $4,620 +$420 (+10%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? No 79¢ 99¢ $2,681 $3,342 +$660 (+25%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 93¢ 99¢ $3,070 $3,266 +$197 (+6%)
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? No 81¢ 89¢ $898 $981 +$84 (+9%)
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $726 $726 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? Yes 48¢ 66¢ $132 $182 +$49 (+37%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 69¢ 75¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary? Yes 15¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $14,498 +$6,938 +48%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $16 $0 +1%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 07 $1,698 −$6 -0%
Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary? Jun 04 $56 −$54 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $265,243 +$50,883 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $15,493 +$648 +4%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se Jun 02 $109 −$109 -100%
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 3, 20 Jun 02 $56 −$34 -61%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Jun 02 $558 −$558 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? Jun 02 $3,950 −$3,950 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 02 $4,787 −$4,787 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3 Jun 02 $7,074 −$4,071 -58%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $2,613 −$2,613 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jun 02 $52 +$84,863 +163975%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Jun 02 $2,922 −$2,922 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Jun 02 $8,675 −$2,366 -27%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $834 −$834 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $5,170 +$759 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,769 +$1,796 +20%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $15,410 +$1,090 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 29 $1,382 +$6 +0%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 29 $15,689 +$239 +2%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $133 +$9 +7%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May May 28 $25 +$1 +2%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $637 +$13 +2%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $4,791 +$48 +1%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $2,302 +$20,240 +879%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 27 $874 +$7,862 +900%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $5,106 +$2,578 +50%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 27 $508 +$17 +3%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $360 +$11 +3%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $3,189 +$76 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $6,838 +$267 +4%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $5,771 +$20,075 +348%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $28 +$16 +57%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $8,639 +$436 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 20 $9,891 +$80 +1%
Will "Home" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will "Apex" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will "Mother's Day" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 19 $208 +$2 +1%
Will "Jennifer's Body" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 19 $431 +$3 +1%
Will "Pretty Woman" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 19 $435 +$2 +1%
Will "Black Phone 2" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will "Swapped" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 19 $64 +$1 +1%
Will "Striking Distance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 19 $117 +$1 +1%
Will "The Proposal" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 19 $259 +$2 +1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $6,299 −$1,190 -19%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $8,806 +$1,408 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% +$71,890
politics 34% +$109,881
other 17% +$176,810
crypto 9% +$50,883
economics 5% +$85,533
sports 1% +$3,011
culture 0% +$109
tech 0% +$4,284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $329 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $25 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $31 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $845 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $50 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $144 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $112 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +16.2% +5.1% 67% 33% +29.2%
≤30d 54 +58.3% +43.2% 70% 20% +6.1%
≤90d 97 +62.0% +46.6% 77% 24% -0.1%
all 151 +43.1% +29.5% 75% 25% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.5% 25% +3.3%
10% +17.1% 16% -6.6%
15% ← realistic here +5.8% 13% -15.6%
20% -4.6% 12% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382,627.30 · official $382,627.31 (match) · 3500 history records