Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd71…da07 other 241 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$22
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$29
sports 25% −$20
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$4
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)241 / 241
History coverage127d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 241 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $247 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $625 −$2 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $280 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $583 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $490 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $426 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $314 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $231 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $399 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $217 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $132 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $165 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $299 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $382 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $148 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $224 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $709 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $153 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $159 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $181 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 02 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $139 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $735 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 2h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 4h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $57 6h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $18 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 11h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $8 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 12h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $32 14h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $32 16h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $7 16h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 17h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 18h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 20h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 23h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 23h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 25h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 26h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 28h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 33h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 35h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 37h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $34 39h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $24 42h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 44h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 45h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 46h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 47h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1316 history records