Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd71…0e99 politics 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,331 (-1%) realized −$1,331 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%21W / 101L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,017per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$21
30 days−$1,061
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$59
other 30% −$1,445
sports 15% +$178
economics 5% −$6
culture 4% −$5
world 2% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 10% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 83 -17.8% -25.6% 10% 2% -11.7%
all 122 -5.5% -14.5% 17% 10% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 10% -10.5%
10% -22.7% 9% -19.1%
15% -30.1% 9% -26.9%
20% -37.0% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,168) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$22 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,331
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses21 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,017
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $574 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $4,395 −$6 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,752 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4,242 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $854 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $972 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $819 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,356 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 31 $1,032 −$1,032 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,006 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,096 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3,141 −$3 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,760 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,052 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $3,345 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,136 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $2,019 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,369 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 09 $996 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,601 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $699 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $1,593 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $828 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $989 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $573 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $574 3h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $680 6h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $681 8h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $653 32h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $654 33h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $572 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $573 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $535 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $535 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $893 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $894 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $862 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $863 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $853 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $854 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $872 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $873 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $971 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $972 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $818 14d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $819 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $874 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $875 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $789 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $790 15d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $762 16d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $763 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 391 history records