Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
CD 0xcd6f…1765 sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,455 (+41%) realized +$4,028 · open +$427
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%30W / 22L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$168est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,067
7 days+$4,537
14 days+$4,377
30 days+$4,377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$4,448
other 5% +$356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +35.3% +22.4% 58% 58% +40.3%
≤30d 52 +32.9% +20.2% 58% 58% +35.3%
≤90d 52 +32.9% +20.2% 58% 58% +35.3%
all 52 +32.9% +20.2% 58% 58% +35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.2% 58% +35.3%
10% ← realistic here +8.7% 58% +22.4%
15% -1.8% 56% +10.5%
20% -11.4% 48% -0.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +53% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$149 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,343
Realized+$4,028
Unrealized+$427
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses30 / 22
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions5
Markets (closed)52 / 57
History coverage8d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 76¢ $308 $536 +$228 (+74%)
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 64¢ 100¢ $254 $400 +$146 (+57%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 97¢ $120 $195 +$75 (+62%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners Over 62¢ 76¢ $124 $152 +$28 (+23%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Over 55¢ 30¢ $110 $61 −$49 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $884 +$1,316 +149%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$100 +100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $305 −$176 -58%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $255 −$255 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $93 −$92 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $80 +$120 +150%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $264 +$236 +90%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $217 +$133 +61%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $229 +$271 +119%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $127 +$273 +216%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $165 +$141 +85%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $71 +$129 +180%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $395 −$390 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $105 −$104 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $111 −$110 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $537 +$463 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $289 +$211 +73%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $119 +$81 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $223 +$377 +169%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $288 +$412 +143%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $52 +$248 +474%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $205 −$146 -72%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $212 −$212 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $106 +$94 +88%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $149 −$74 -50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $463 +$1,796 +388%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $446 −$338 -76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 +$50 +100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $270 −$270 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $54 −$53 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $146 −$146 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $23 +$13 +56%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $100 +$100 +100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $109 +$40 +37%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $92 +$58 +64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $92 −$54 -59%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $60 +$17 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $198 +$102 +51%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $427 +$171 +40%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $91 −$4 -4%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $93 −$43 -46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $151 −$118 -78%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $188 +$298 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $95 +$56 +60%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 +$155 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$45 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $125 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $89 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $130 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $111 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 62¢ $125 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $224 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $9 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $6 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $23 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $0 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $42 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $0 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $95 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $131 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $97 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $480 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $129 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $47 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $46 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $159 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $150 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $155 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $48 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $93 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,343.20 · official $1,343.20 (match) · 192 history records