Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd6e…5384 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$256 (-2%) realized −$256 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate82%68W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days+$32
14 days−$101
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$398
sports 8% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.0% -9.5% 96% 15% -8.8%
≤30d 83 -1.0% -10.4% 82% 13% -12.6%
≤90d 83 -1.0% -10.4% 82% 13% -12.6%
all 83 -1.0% -10.4% 82% 13% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 13% -12.6%
10% -19.0% 6% -20.9%
15% -26.8% 4% -28.6%
20% -34.0% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$46 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$256
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses68 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage19d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $180 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $181 +$19 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $181 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $120 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $118 +$13 +11%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $121 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $241 +$18 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $121 +$18 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $180 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $120 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $316 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $120 +$1 +1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $472 +$24 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $121 +$20 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $120 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $120 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $120 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $120 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $145 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 07 $145 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 06 $130 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $142 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $130 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $135 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 04 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 04 $116 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $116 −$112 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $115 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $180 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $181 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $181 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $120 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $118 44h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $102 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $120 45h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $120 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $120 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $121 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $121 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $121 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $120 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $120 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $120 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $121 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $180 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $120 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $318 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 100¢ $316 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $120 5d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $313 5d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 79¢ $70 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records