Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CD
0xcd6b…68f5
world · 301 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$50,129 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,561 · open −$54
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41,654
Realized−$2,561
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses167 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions59
Markets (closed)249 / 301
History coverage99d
Avg bet$977
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 59 History 249 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days−$1,537
14 days−$6,657
30 days−$6,584
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 81¢ 80¢ $10,214 $10,114 −$100 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $6,330 $7,350 +$1,020 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 60¢ $2,159 $3,908 +$1,749 (+81%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 40¢ 57¢ $2,531 $3,573 +$1,043 (+41%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $1,782 $2,138 +$356 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 28¢ $3,890 $1,949 −$1,941 (-50%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1,425 $1,450 +$25 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 47¢ 36¢ $1,407 $1,065 −$342 (-24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $765 $971 +$206 (+27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $900 $850 −$50 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $795 $833 +$38 (+5%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $414 $522 +$108 (+26%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $390 $495 +$105 (+27%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 55¢ 21¢ $1,097 $425 −$672 (-61%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $452 $392 −$59 (-13%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $380 $390 +$10 (+3%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $409 $390 −$19 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $1,031 $386 −$645 (-63%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $360 $358 −$2 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $260 $340 +$80 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 34¢ $505 $335 −$170 (-34%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 60¢ 70¢ $255 $298 +$43 (+17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $275 $257 −$18 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 46¢ $280 $232 −$47 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $170 $225 +$55 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 12 $3,594 +$102 +3%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $9,992 −$1,828 -18%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 11 $190 −$190 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $125 +$10 +8%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 08 $714 +$269 +38%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 08 $133 +$27 +20%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $373 +$170 +46%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 05 $400 +$224 +56%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $100 +$900 +900%
Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2,548 −$2,548 -100%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 02 $116 +$6 +5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,066 −$1,066 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $9,008 −$2,323 -26%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $289 +$204 +70%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8 +$11 +133%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $116 −$116 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $406 −$246 -61%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6 +$13 +214%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $838 +$195 +23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $950 +$265 +28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 29 $240 −$20 -8%
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 25 $13 +$11 +85%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 24 $95 +$128 +134%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 21 $460 +$20 +4%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 20 $9 +$100 +1150%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 17 $306 −$306 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 17 $1,164 −$354 -30%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? May 17 $456 +$16 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 15 $1,320 −$60 -4%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 15 $2,637 +$143 +5%
Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027? May 13 $10 +$14 +146%
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? May 09 $162 +$22 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $909 +$70 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $48 +$2 +4%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 08 $3,615 +$1 +0%
Will a team from Portugal be the 2026 Europa League winner? May 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May? May 08 $244 +$5 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 07 $145 −$60 -41%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $225 −$22 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 06 $232 −$71 -30%
Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 06 $237 −$120 -51%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele May 06 $120 −$120 -100%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4? May 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$5,896
politics 35% −$4,610
other 11% −$1,283
crypto 3% −$2,484
sports 2% +$540
economics 1% −$970
finance 0% +$301
tech 0% −$9
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $838 42m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 48m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 51m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 51m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $450 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,126 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $957 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $570 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $228 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $537 24h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 33h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $3,696 42h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $99 46h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 46h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 46h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 46h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 47h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $75 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -22.6% -30.0% 56% 33% -18.7%
≤30d 37 +42.7% +29.1% 51% 35% -25.2%
≤90d 232 +31.9% +19.4% 65% 34% -11.0%
all 249 +38.0% +24.9% 67% 33% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.9% 33% -10.8%
10% +12.9% 22% -19.3%
15% ← realistic here +2.0% 18% -27.1%
20% -8.0% 14% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,654.40 · official $41,654.95 (match) · 3500 history records