Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:11:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd66…6bad sports 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$310 (-4%) realized −$312 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate75%164W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days+$0
30 days−$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$373
other 6% +$14
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -22.6% -30.0% 67% 56% -25.6%
≤30d 218 -4.0% -13.2% 75% 52% -13.9%
≤90d 218 -4.0% -13.2% 75% 52% -13.9%
all 218 -4.0% -13.2% 75% 52% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 52% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 24% -22.1%
15% -29.1% 6% -29.7%
20% -36.0% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$19 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$312
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses164 / 54
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions2
Markets (closed)218 / 220
History coverage27d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 94¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Rooster 79¢ 96¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $8 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $8 +$2 +18%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Mert Alkaya vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Jun 07 $7 +$3 +35%
Libema Open, Qualification: Niels Visker vs Elias Ymer Jun 07 $8 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 05 $9 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play Jun 05 $8 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $7 +$3 +36%
Counter-Strike: eternal premium vs Project 91 (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu Jun 05 $9 +$1 +17%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pierluigi Basile Jun 05 $8 +$2 +27%
Foggia: Giorgia Pedone vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 05 $9 +$1 +16%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Weste Jun 01 $9 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 01 $7 +$1 +7%
LoL: Forsaken vs BOMBA Team (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs Jun 01 $8 +$2 +22%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $8 +$2 +29%
ITF Troisdorf: Tom Zeuch vs Viktor Durasovic May 27 $6 +$2 +38%
ITF Monastir: Beatrice Stagno vs Viola Bedini May 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $8 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Ser May 27 $7 +$3 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Snigur vs Peyton Stearns May 27 $7 +$3 +42%
ITF Kutaisi: Robin Catry vs Julian Alonso Vivanco May 27 $9 −$4 -42%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League May 26 $19 +$1 +7%
Little Rock: Blake Ellis vs Tyler Zink May 26 $9 +$1 +15%
Little Rock: Erik Arutiunian vs Justin Boulais May 26 $9 +$1 +8%
ITF Oliva: Victoria Pohle vs Adriana Monlleo Ramos May 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka May 26 $8 +$2 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $7 +$3 +38%
Counter-Strike: Pitstop crew vs Diamant Esports (BO3) - Exort Series C May 26 $9 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs Atreides (BO3) - European Pro League May 26 $8 +$2 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif May 26 $8 −$8 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 26 $8 −$8 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang May 26 $9 +$1 +15%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe May 26 $8 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou May 26 $8 +$2 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 26 $8 +$2 +20%
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Stefan Latinovic May 26 $9 +$1 +8%
Centurion: Sidharth Rawat vs Orel Kimhi May 26 $8 +$1 +17%
World Championships: Hungary vs. Latvia May 26 $8 $0 +3%
Chisinau: Sumit Nagal vs Sergey Fomin May 26 $8 +$2 +20%
Kosice: Pedro Sakamoto vs Stefan Dostanic May 26 $8 +$2 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala May 26 $7 +$3 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Kamil Majchrzak May 26 $8 +$2 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $8 +$2 +22%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 79¢ $8 47m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY Ground Zero 94¢ $9 47m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 79¢ $8 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 83¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 90¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 92¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $10 2d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Karmine Corp Blue 81¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 87¢ $9 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 89¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 84¢ $8 3d
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Mert Alkaya vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert BUY Pierre-Hugues Herbert 74¢ $7 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Niels Visker vs Elias Ymer BUY Elias Ymer 82¢ $8 7d
Counter-Strike: eternal premium vs Project 91 (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu BUY eternal premium 85¢ $4 9d
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pierluigi Basile BUY Andrea Pellegrino 78¢ $8 9d
Foggia: Giorgia Pedone vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 86¢ $9 9d
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play BUY Banger Gang 78¢ $8 9d
Counter-Strike: eternal premium vs Project 91 (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu BUY eternal premium 85¢ $4 9d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S BUY ex-RUBY 89¢ $9 9d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 73¢ $4 9d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 73¢ $4 9d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Weste BUY Natus Vincere 87¢ $9 14d
LoL: Forsaken vs BOMBA Team (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs BUY Forsaken 82¢ $8 14d
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se BUY INOX Division 93¢ $7 14d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 77¢ $8 18d
ITF Monastir: Beatrice Stagno vs Viola Bedini BUY Beatrice Stagno 72¢ $4 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.53 · official $19.54 (match) · 800 history records