Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd65…5726 sports 304 markets active 1h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23,830 (-5%) realized −$23,562 · open −$268
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%158W / 143L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,468per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$3,290est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3,015now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,443
7 days−$8,561
14 days+$2,540
30 days−$14,326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$7,889
other 7% −$16,215
world 1% −$1,579
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -18.6% -26.4% 51% 49% -26.2%
≤30d 206 -1.7% -11.1% 56% 54% -14.3%
≤90d 214 -1.2% -10.7% 57% 55% -14.6%
all 301 +2.4% -7.4% 52% 50% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 50% -14.7%
10% -16.2% 48% -22.9%
15% -24.3% 43% -30.3%
20% -31.8% 33% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$1,992) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,124 vs −$1,419 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$3,015
Realized−$23,562
Unrealized−$268
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses158 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$3,290
Open positions3
Markets (closed)301 / 304
History coverage539d
Avg bet$1,468
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 67¢ 100¢ $1,190 $1,774 +$585 (+49%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ 100¢ $708 $1,239 +$532 (+75%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 69¢ 0¢ $1,385 $1 −$1,384 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $728 +$737 +101%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $594 +$706 +119%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,934 +$1,566 +81%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $552 −$552 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $164 −$164 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,468 +$318 +22%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $859 −$849 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,125 +$613 +54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $945 +$433 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,270 +$1,374 +108%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,126 −$1,111 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,295 −$1,281 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $537 −$529 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,315 +$480 +36%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,260 +$240 +19%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,330 +$446 +34%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $787 +$291 +37%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2,004 +$594 +30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $546 −$537 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,733 +$180 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,010 −$1,998 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,997 −$1,988 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $621 −$610 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,024 +$1,365 +67%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $2,022 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,934 +$2,032 +105%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2,031 −$2,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,002 −$1,987 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,565 +$773 +49%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,031 −$2,031 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1,340 −$1,320 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,267 −$1,254 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $1,187 +$384 +32%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1,155 +$1,120 +97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,170 +$1,230 +105%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1,020 −$1,005 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,181 +$797 +67%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $1,145 +$370 +32%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,763 +$1,782 +64%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,992 +$1,002 +50%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,910 +$946 +50%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $552 +$670 +121%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,559 +$1,665 +107%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,077 +$1,312 +63%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,123 −$1,109 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $3,532 −$547 -16%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $528 +$226 +43%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,969 +$487 +25%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,020 +$1,056 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $180 33m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $351 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $106 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $7 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $2 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $2 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $2 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $2 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $4 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $20 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $716 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $505 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $21 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $13 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $38 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $14 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $33 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $176 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $54 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,014.59 · official $3,023.59 (match) · 2265 history records