Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcd64…b1b3 other 18 markets active 21h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$861 (+1%) realized +$861 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate100%18W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$5,607per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$304
14 days+$374
30 days+$847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$416
finance 14% +$44
world 10% +$387
sports 7% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.5% -2.8% 100% 17% -8.9%
≤30d 16 +3.7% -6.2% 100% 6% -8.7%
≤90d 17 +3.5% -6.4% 100% 6% -8.8%
all 18 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 6% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 6% -17.5%
15% -23.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -31.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$10,537) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$861
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses18 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage208d
Avg bet$5,607
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10,910 +$33 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10,900 +$11 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10,838 +$61 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,672 +$165 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$25 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,526 +$5 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10,185 +$10 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $2,256 +$25 +1%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,393 +$9 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10,537 +$11 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $10,526 +$11 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $610 +$21 +3%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $1,290 +$16 +1%
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $1,500 +$50 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10,053 +$387 +4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $7,532 +$8 +0%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Nov 24 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $9,268 21h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $77 21h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $515 21h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $465 21h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $252 21h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $332 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $10,900 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 99¢ $8,654 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,185 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $379 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $97 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $347 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $107 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $207 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $328 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,192 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $279 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $66 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $72 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $146 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $7,208 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 91¢ $91 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 260 history records