Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CD 0xcd62…4e9a crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,817 (-16%) realized −$2,817 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%33W / 44L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$64
14 days−$2,802
30 days−$2,802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$815
crypto 36% −$2,852
other 14% −$803
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -28.4% -35.3% 42% 42% -14.7%
≤30d 59 -30.3% -36.9% 42% 39% -24.9%
≤90d 77 -20.7% -28.2% 43% 39% -24.8%
all 77 -20.7% -28.2% 43% 39% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 39% -24.8%
10% -35.1% 38% -32.0%
15% -41.4% 36% -38.6%
20% -47.1% 26% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$177 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,817
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses33 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 83
History coverage47d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $110 +$41 +38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $51 +$31 +62%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $51 +$51 +101%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $46 −$46 -99%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 20 $95 −$93 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$42 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $62 +$35 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$40 -95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $220 +$136 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -97%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $73 −$72 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $625 −$622 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1,254 −$1,250 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $985 +$352 +36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,011 −$997 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $251 −$247 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$67 +66%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,462 +$558 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $609 −$606 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $489 +$120 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,094 +$530 +48%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $855 +$729 +85%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $614 +$328 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $519 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $514 +$332 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $258 +$206 +80%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $658 −$658 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $556 −$549 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $517 −$515 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $374 +$143 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $252 +$110 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $201 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $222 +$97 +43%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $509 +$717 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $118 −$112 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 1h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 72¢ $110 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 46¢ $167 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $85 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $82 26h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $51 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams BUY 28¢ $51 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $102 27h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $46 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $51 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $51 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $51 28h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $95 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $356 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 61¢ $220 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $18 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 55¢ $203 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $73 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will United State BUY 30¢ $70 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records