Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:36:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd61…0002 sports 201 markets active 0h ago coverage 256d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 255d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,564 (-2%) realized −$1,312 · open −$252
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%86W / 85L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$8,015now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$550
7 days+$1,849
14 days+$935
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$4,627
other 34% +$395
politics 23% +$2,180
world 0% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +23.2% +11.4% 83% 75% +13.2%
≤30d 30 -17.0% -24.9% 57% 47% -11.6%
≤90d 52 +12.3% +1.6% 69% 58% +1.6%
all 171 -7.0% -15.9% 50% 42% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 42% -12.5%
10% -23.9% 36% -20.9%
15% -31.3% 33% -28.6%
20% -38.0% 29% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$216 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$8,015
Realized−$1,312
Unrealized−$252
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses86 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions30
Markets (closed)171 / 201
History coverage256d ⚠
Avg bet$344
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,529 $1,646 +$118 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $1,231 $1,234 +$3 (+0%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? No 95¢ 98¢ $926 $954 +$28 (+3%)
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 92¢ 93¢ $925 $932 +$7 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $520 $535 +$15 (+3%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 48¢ $300 $485 +$185 (+62%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 83¢ 86¢ $415 $432 +$17 (+4%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 61¢ 68¢ $307 $346 +$39 (+13%)
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $221 $211 −$10 (-5%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $168 $200 +$33 (+19%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 36¢ $164 $167 +$2 (+1%)
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 17¢ 20¢ $127 $150 +$22 (+18%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 94¢ 99¢ $131 $138 +$6 (+5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $115 $118 +$2 (+2%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 70¢ 88¢ $71 $89 +$19 (+26%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 8¢ $300 $75 −$225 (-75%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $84 $67 −$17 (-20%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals No 32¢ 32¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $90 $45 −$45 (-50%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 38¢ 17¢ $84 $38 −$46 (-55%)
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $33 +$7 (+27%)
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals No 60¢ 100¢ $18 $30 +$12 (+66%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $34 $13 −$21 (-63%)
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+25%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+183%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $870 +$40 +5%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $816 +$350 +43%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $840 +$160 +19%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 19 $335 +$165 +49%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $876 +$324 +37%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1,258 +$267 +21%
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ goals Jun 18 $230 +$82 +36%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $460 +$540 +117%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $440 +$360 +82%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $430 −$430 -100%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $473 +$327 +69%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $336 −$336 -100%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,751 +$379 +22%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $51 +$15 +30%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 10 $528 −$528 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 09 $300 −$300 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $255 +$145 +57%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 05 $86 −$86 -100%
Merkezefendi vs. Mersin BSB Jun 05 $97 −$97 -100%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 05 $166 −$166 -100%
Valencia: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 05 $129 −$129 -100%
Bordeaux: Otto Virtanen vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 05 $405 −$405 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Moez Echargui Jun 05 $720 −$720 -100%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $810 −$10 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $220 +$164 +75%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $110 +$30 +27%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $918 +$10 +1%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,580 +$82 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 15 $165 −$35 -21%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Martin Landaluce May 13 $481 +$819 +170%
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 08 $0 $0 +62%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Gianluca Cadena May 08 $196 +$92 +47%
Monaco vs. Barcelona Apr 25 $612 +$588 +96%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $2,593 +$311 +12%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $709 +$94 +13%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Pedro Martinez Apr 21 $5 +$3 +61%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Cristian Garin vs Nicolas Jarry Apr 20 $270 +$180 +67%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Otto Virtanen vs Titouan Droguet Apr 20 $432 +$357 +83%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $2,006 +$101 +5%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $36 +$27 +76%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $18 +$1 +5%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Damir Dzumhur vs Nicolai Bud Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $1,522 +$228 +15%
Bucharest Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 04 $1 +$3 +238%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Mackenzie McDonald vs Jenson Brooks Mar 31 $186 +$414 +223%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $566 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 32¢ $4 18m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 32¢ $2 19m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 32¢ $2 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 32¢ $2 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $29 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $5 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $76 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $5 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $1 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $5 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $3 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $26 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $21 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $10 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $104 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $8 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $1 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $102 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $2 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $5 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $1 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $2 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $1 2h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $18 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 32¢ $0 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 32¢ $0 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 32¢ $2 4h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $480 4h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $171 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 32¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,015.01 · official $8,016.49 (match) · 3477 history records