Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd61…b946 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$4
other 17% −$3
sports 8% +$5
politics 7% −$1
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
weather 4% −$6
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -7.7% -16.5% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -7.7% -16.5% 14% 0% -10.1%
all 45 -11.8% -20.2% 36% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 2% -10.5%
10% -27.8% 2% -19.1%
15% -34.8% 0% -26.9%
20% -41.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage472d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $39 −$2 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $24 −$2 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $9 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $45 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Dec 10 $1 $0 -38%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 31 $14 $0 -0%
Another Trump x Putin talk in March? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -73%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel military action against Iran in March? Mar 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 18? Mar 19 $18 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 18 $18 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday? Mar 16 $18 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Jew" or "Jewish" 3+ times during his presser with Irel Mar 12 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 7? Mar 11 $18 $0 +2%
Kent State vs. Western Michigan Mar 06 $13 +$5 +35%
UT Martin vs. Tennessee Tech Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'Canada' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 3? Mar 03 $11 −$6 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $5 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $32 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $5 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $34 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $22 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $45 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $45 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $45 10d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $45 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.46 · official $40.66 (match) · 151 history records