Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd60…a967 other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$32
sports 24% −$23
politics 10% −$7
culture 9% −$9
world 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$5
economics 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage131d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $387 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $111 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $389 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $144 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $333 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $423 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $325 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $212 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $316 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $425 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $203 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $387 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $294 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $228 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $107 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $190 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $404 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $357 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $240 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 12 $165 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $304 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $392 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $330 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $236 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 41m
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 4h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 6h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 7h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 9h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 19h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 21h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 22h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 24h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 28h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 29h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 31h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 32h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 34h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 35h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 43h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 45h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $47 46h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 47h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $18 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $18 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1340 history records