Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcd5b…d6d0 sports 309 markets active 5h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+6%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate84%256W / 50L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$43
14 days+$41
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$47
other 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 175 +9.0% -1.4% 88% 87% -1.8%
≤30d 306 +8.8% -1.5% 84% 83% -4.7%
≤90d 306 +8.8% -1.5% 84% 83% -4.7%
all 306 +8.8% -1.5% 84% 83% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 83% -4.7%
10% -11.0% 48% -13.8%
15% -19.6% 6% -22.1%
20% -27.5% 1% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses256 / 50
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)306 / 309
History coverage28d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Learner Tien 81¢ 96¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Dalibor Svrcina 83¢ 83¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Katerina Siniakova 87¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $3 +$1 +16%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $3 +$1 +17%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +17%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $3 +$1 +32%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $3 +$1 +31%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +24%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 13 $3 +$1 +32%
Ilkley: Katie Swan vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $3 +$1 +23%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Aziz Dougaz Jun 13 $3 $0 +11%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $3 +$1 +23%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 13 $3 +$1 +21%
ITF Zagreb: Iva Primorac vs Elina Avanesyan Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Halle Open, Qualification: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Roberto Bautista Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
ITF kiseljak: Sergi Perez Contri vs Ivan Biletic Jun 13 $3 $0 +11%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $3 +$1 +32%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $3 +$1 +24%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 83¢ $3 5h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 81¢ $3 7h
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 87¢ $3 13h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 77¢ $3 13h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 86¢ $3 14h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 81¢ $3 15h
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 76¢ $3 15h
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 90¢ $3 16h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Jesper de Jong 85¢ $3 18h
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY David Jorda Sanchis 78¢ $3 19h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 81¢ $3 20h
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus BUY Savannah Broadus 83¢ $3 22h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 77¢ $3 23h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman BUY Zeynep Sonmez 82¢ $3 24h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Martin Landaluce 78¢ $3 24h
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li BUY Zongyu Li 78¢ $3 29h
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $3 33h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 81¢ $3 33h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 78¢ $3 35h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 75¢ $3 36h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 79¢ $3 36h
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 38h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 76¢ $3 38h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 87¢ $3 39h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 77¢ $3 41h
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $3 41h
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 75¢ $3 43h
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 75¢ $3 43h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Viktorija Golubic 77¢ $3 44h
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 81¢ $3 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.14 · official $10.14 (match) · 577 history records