Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
CD 0xcd59…da8e other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$393 (+6%) realized +$393 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate55%37W / 30L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$78
14 days+$97
30 days+$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$269
sports 11% +$21
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +39.9% +26.6% 50% 25% -7.7%
≤30d 67 +24.1% +12.3% 55% 25% -5.7%
≤90d 67 +24.1% +12.3% 55% 25% -5.7%
all 67 +24.1% +12.3% 55% 25% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.3% 25% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here +1.6% 10% -14.7%
15% -8.2% 9% -22.9%
20% -17.2% 6% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$393
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses37 / 30
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage23d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $90 −$8 -9%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $603 −$80 -13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$5 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $382 +$53 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $475 +$35 +7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $80 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $160 +$2 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 −$3 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $322 −$11 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $160 −$2 -1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $242 +$8 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$15 +14%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 +$60 +763%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $120 −$3 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $180 +$12 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $62 +$8 +13%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $141 −$12 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $299 +$27 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $141 −$7 -5%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $71 −$2 -3%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $293 +$12 +4%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $141 +$2 +2%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $53 +$23 +42%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $40 −$1 -2%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 May 31 $120 +$20 +17%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $13 −$6 -51%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-05-29? May 31 $24 +$5 +20%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $60 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $103 +$56 +55%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $42 $0 +1%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $120 +$8 +6%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $170 −$12 -7%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-25? May 28 $44 +$2 +4%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 May 28 $53 −$3 -6%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5 May 28 $18 +$9 +50%
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $108 +$18 +16%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $72 +$1 +2%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $120 −$2 -2%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $24 −$2 -8%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $63 +$5 +8%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $145 +$34 +24%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $82 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $90 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $183 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $30 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $111 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $111 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 22¢ $96 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $95 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $93 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 21¢ $93 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $102 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $113 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $91 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 40¢ $36 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 34¢ $1 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 34¢ $21 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 34¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $85 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $92 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $206 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $75 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $81 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 52¢ $82 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $81 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $63 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 27¢ $37 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 27¢ $15 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 501 history records