Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CD 0xcd4c…b7e4 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+37%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$179
sports 29% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -14.7% -22.8% 40% 40% +33.2%
≤30d 5 -14.7% -22.8% 40% 40% +33.2%
≤90d 5 -14.7% -22.8% 40% 40% +33.2%
all 5 -14.7% -22.8% 40% 40% +33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 40% +33.2%
10% -30.2% 40% +20.4%
15% -36.9% 40% +8.8%
20% -43.1% 40% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +47% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$22 · ×4.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $71 +$51 +72%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 28 $21 −$15 -72%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 +$129 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 6h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $20 18h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 3¢ $6 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 63¢ $231 18h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $21 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.69 · official $120.69 (match) · 7 history records