Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CD 0xcd4c…ffe2 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+1%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate72%38W / 15L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$59
sports 29% +$21
crypto 3% +$1
politics 2% −$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.8% -7.9% 91% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 23 +1.7% -8.0% 91% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 44 +1.1% -8.5% 77% 18% -8.6%
all 53 -6.1% -15.1% 72% 23% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 23% -8.7%
10% -23.2% 15% -17.4%
15% -30.6% 11% -25.4%
20% -37.4% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses38 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)53 / 62
History coverage253d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Ecuador 99¢ 99¢ $268 $268 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $268 +$1 +0%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 20 $265 +$5 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $253 +$12 +5%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 20 $241 +$11 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,040 +$2 +0%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 19 $255 +$3 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $237 +$18 +8%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 18 $225 +$11 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $427 +$9 +2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $216 +$2 +1%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $215 +$1 +1%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $213 +$1 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $420 +$3 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $203 +$6 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 +$1 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 $0 +0%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 16 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $192 +$5 +2%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $194 +$1 +1%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $190 +$3 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $193 −$1 -1%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 26 $190 $0 +0%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $188 +$1 +1%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-03? May 20 $184 +$1 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $185 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $334 −$1 -0%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-04-26? Apr 28 $10 +$6 +61%
CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $10 +$5 +45%
Inter Miami CF vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $12 +$8 +72%
Independiente Medellín vs. Fortaleza CEIF: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $12 −$12 -100%
CA Platense vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $392 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $203 $0 +0%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $3 $0 +18%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $396 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Apr 19 $2 +$1 +26%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-16? Apr 19 $3 $0 +5%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $199 $0 -0%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 11 $3 $0 -0%
Will Russia win on 2026-03-27? Apr 11 $3 $0 +11%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-03-21? Mar 27 $2 $0 +22%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14? Mar 19 $2 +$1 +45%
Will FK Polissia win on 2026-03-19? Mar 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FK Polissia win on 2026-03-13? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $0 $0 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2025-10-12? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2025-10-13? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 99¢ $36 52m
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 99¢ $232 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $269 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $0 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $268 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $270 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $265 3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $253 19h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Morocco 96¢ $202 23h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Morocco 96¢ $39 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $262 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $261 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $261 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $10 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $59 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $52 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $41 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $100 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $17 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $243 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 99¢ $260 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $259 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 99¢ $258 24h
Spread: Australia (-2.5) SELL United States 100¢ $258 24h
Spread: Australia (-2.5) BUY United States 99¢ $255 26h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $237 46h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $236 47h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 95¢ $74 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 95¢ $12 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 95¢ $139 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.00 · official $268.00 (match) · 228 history records