Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd49…6ec5 crypto 1087 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$107 (-3%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%549W / 522L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day127.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$27
14 days−$100
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 818 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 52% -8.5%
≤30d 1071 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 51% -11.7%
≤90d 1071 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 51% -11.7%
all 1071 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 51% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 51% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 50% -20.2%
15% -27.1% 50% -27.9%
20% -34.3% 49% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses549 / 522
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1071 / 1087
History coverage10d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day127.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1071 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 44¢ 4¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.55 · official $3.09 (match) · 1794 history records