Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd49…4869 politics 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 121L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$17
politics 36% −$20
sports 8% +$7
economics 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 98 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 129 -1.2% -10.6% 6% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×9.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage132d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $289 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $246 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $219 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $261 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,345 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 17 $301 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $276 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $280 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 14 $299 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $249 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $285 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $312 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $297 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $287 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $230 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $254 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $275 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $304 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $234 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $230 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $286 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $303 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $463 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $247 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $522 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 24 $268 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $324 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $308 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $310 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 4h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 12h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 40h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 43h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 46h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 2d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 4d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 24d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $283 26d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 26d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 26d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $233 26d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $233 27d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $304 28d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $304 28d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $230 28d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $230 29d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 29d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 29d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $261 30d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $261 32d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $307 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 412 history records