Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd47…c7f7 world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$3
other 28% −$2
sports 24% −$1
politics 9% +$3
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 29 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 40 -0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -9.6%
all 87 -1.1% -10.6% 36% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 56
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage320d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 44¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $94 −$2 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $85 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $155 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $68 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $77 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $182 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $90 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $182 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $127 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $83 +$2 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $83 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $189 +$2 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $255 −$9 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $80 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $90 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $10 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $53 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $9 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $98 +$3 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $87 −$2 -2%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $133 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $642 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $65 −$2 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $642 +$2 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $73 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $225 +$3 +1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jan 30 $58 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $3 $0 +4%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $91 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $94 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $85 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $65 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $20 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $18 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $80 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $67 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $68 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $62 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $77 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $77 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $92 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $92 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $91 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $90 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $90 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $90 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $90 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $90 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $90 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $90 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.23 · official $36.10 (match) · 335 history records