Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd43…59f2 other 246 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$20
14 days−$31
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$52
sports 21% −$21
economics 6% −$6
politics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$1
world 4% −$2
tech 2% +$8
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 246 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
History coverage135d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 246 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $715 −$2 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $334 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $351 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $284 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $271 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,131 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $164 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $530 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $391 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $615 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $68 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $307 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 08 $739 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $141 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $232 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $347 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $202 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 04 $595 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $373 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $150 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $177 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 12m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 3h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 4h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 6h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 7h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $63 9h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 10h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 12h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 14h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 19h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 21h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 25h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 27h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 28h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 30h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $64 31h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $64 33h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $64 44h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $64 46h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 47h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1413 history records