Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CD 0xcd40…a80e other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$11
politics 36% −$8
sports 5% −$53
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 115 -4.0% -13.1% 5% 4% -9.9%
all 126 -4.4% -13.5% 8% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 6% -9.9%
10% -21.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -29.4% 2% -26.4%
20% -36.3% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 116
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage116d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $303 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $330 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $133 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $391 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $136 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $270 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $117 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $141 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 07 $142 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $438 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $124 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $110 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $160 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $120 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $111 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $273 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $292 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $113 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $131 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $123 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $264 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $299 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $519 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 7h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 16h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 31h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 35h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 9d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 10d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 10d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $16 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $16 11d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $21 12d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $18 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $18 14d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 20d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 22d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $133 22d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $133 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $119 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $119 25d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $111 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.00 · official $25.00 (match) · 359 history records