Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd3f…8e2b sports 237 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (378 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9,182 (-1%) realized −$9,211 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%226W / 10L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,639per market
Trades / day378.3pace
Fees−$429est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$483now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$2,807
sports 40% −$41,975
crypto 5% +$941
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (378 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 +1.3% -8.4% 98% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 236 +8.2% -2.1% 96% 2% -11.9%
≤90d 236 +8.2% -2.1% 96% 2% -11.9%
all 236 +8.2% -2.1% 96% 2% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover378.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 2% -11.9%
10% -11.5% 2% -20.3%
15% ← realistic here -20.0% 2% -28.0%
20% -27.9% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$2,868) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$6,378 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$483
Realized−$9,211
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses226 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$429
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$6,639
Trades / day378.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 94¢ 100¢ $453 $483 +$29 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $1,686 +$17 +1%
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics Jun 28 $2,187 +$22 +1%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky Jun 28 $2,500 +$96 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $62 +$1 +1%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $1,424 +$76 +5%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $2,500 +$77 +3%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28 $2 $0 +6%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings Jun 28 $2,659 +$139 +5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $74 +$2 +3%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $475 +$31 +6%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $31,182 +$649 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $39,651 +$772 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $1,668 +$17 +1%
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Jun 28 $1,555 +$16 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever Jun 28 $296 +$8 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $11,276 +$115 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $40,000 +$40 +0%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $28,000 +$283 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $40,000 +$404 +1%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 27 $2,502 +$25 +1%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League St Jun 27 $2,477 +$25 +1%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $38,748 +$64 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $38,481 +$39 +0%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 27 $8,000 +$81 +1%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $9,155 +$92 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $32 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 27 $625 +$14 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 27 $19,966 +$269 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $3,570 +$93 +3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $5,526 +$146 +3%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $2,000 +$20 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $3,546 +$154 +4%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $615 +$29 +5%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 27 $2,500 +$77 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 27 $495 +$5 +1%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 27 $156 +$2 +1%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $1,799 +$58 +3%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $3,542 +$91 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $38,761 +$122 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $38,503 +$113 +0%
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Wilson Leite Jun 26 $1,205 +$61 +5%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $32 +$1 +4%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Nicolas Zanellato Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $176 +$3 +2%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $685 +$9 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $744 +$21 +3%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $2,531 +$129 +5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $12,418 +$16 +0%
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 26 $2,551 +$125 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 94¢ $453 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 99¢ $1 6h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 99¢ $190 6h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 99¢ $61 6h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 99¢ $2 6h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 99¢ $1,222 6h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 99¢ $99 6h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 99¢ $110 6h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 99¢ $187 10h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 99¢ $922 10h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 99¢ $15 10h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 99¢ $4 10h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 99¢ $148 10h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 99¢ $1 10h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 99¢ $495 10h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 99¢ $80 10h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 99¢ $336 10h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $62 10h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Las Vegas Aces 96¢ $500 11h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Las Vegas Aces 96¢ $500 11h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Las Vegas Aces 96¢ $500 11h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Las Vegas Aces 96¢ $500 11h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Las Vegas Aces 96¢ $500 11h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 95¢ $103 11h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 95¢ $500 11h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 95¢ $500 11h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 95¢ $298 11h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 95¢ $23 11h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 97¢ $500 12h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 97¢ $500 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $482.71 · official $482.71 (match) · 3500 history records