Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CD 0xcd3f…0a1b crypto 450 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,245 (-6%) realized −$1,245 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%238W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$154
14 days−$154
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,410
sports 1% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -2.5% -11.8% 54% 54% -12.7%
≤30d 65 -2.5% -11.8% 54% 54% -12.7%
≤90d 65 -2.5% -11.8% 54% 54% -12.7%
all 450 -5.7% -14.7% 53% 52% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 52% -15.2%
10% -22.9% 49% -23.3%
15% -30.3% 46% -30.7%
20% -37.1% 42% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$45 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,245
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses238 / 212
Open positions0
Markets (closed)450 / 450
History coverage137d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 450 Trades
no open positions (205 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $83 +$66 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $83 +$52 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$31 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $83 +$54 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$25 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $67 +$53 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $140 +$95 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $82 +$38 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $82 +$56 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$82 +311%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$49 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$42 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$49 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $82 +$43 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $67 +$51 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $67 +$61 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $47 +$63 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $83 +$75 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $82 +$45 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $83 +$67 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $83 +$70 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $126 +$26 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$19 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$58 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$46 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $83 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $57 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $56 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $83 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $77 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $67 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $67 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $68 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $67 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $67 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $97 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $140 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $82 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $82 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $83 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $19 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $83 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $67 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $67 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 853 history records