Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CD 0xcd3e…0f77 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-3%) realized −$27 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate59%23W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$27
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$43
other 25% +$20
world 16% −$16
politics 5% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +49.3% +35.1% 100% 100% +35.1%
≤30d 5 +19.5% +8.1% 100% 40% +7.2%
≤90d 8 -12.3% -20.7% 75% 25% +1.4%
all 39 -16.1% -24.1% 59% 21% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 21% -13.3%
10% -31.3% 8% -21.6%
15% -38.0% 3% -29.2%
20% -44.1% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses23 / 16
Open positions10
Markets (closed)39 / 49
History coverage216d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +49%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 09 $50 +$14 +29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $25 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 26 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 05 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 20 $55 −$21 -38%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 19 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 25 $27 +$1 +5%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $10 −$1 -7%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 07 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 6PM ET Nov 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET Nov 25 $9 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 5PM ET Nov 24 $25 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4PM ET Nov 24 $40 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 3PM ET Nov 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1PM ET Nov 24 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 12PM ET Nov 24 $25 +$4 +15%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Nov 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 11AM ET Nov 24 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Nov 24 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11PM ET Nov 24 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10PM ET Nov 24 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11AM ET Nov 23 $70 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10AM ET Nov 23 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2AM ET Nov 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1AM ET Nov 23 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 12AM ET Nov 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 11PM ET Nov 23 $39 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 7PM ET Nov 23 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 6PM ET Nov 23 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5PM ET Nov 22 $46 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 4PM ET Nov 22 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3PM ET Nov 22 $55 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 2PM ET Nov 22 $3 −$2 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $38 20h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 60¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 10d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $63 12d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $1 13d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $50 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $27 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $27 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $25 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $25 26d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 70¢ $52 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 47d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 65d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $34 121d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $28 122d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $55 131d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $27 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.84 · official $96.84 (match) · 193 history records