Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd3d…a1e7 crypto 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,011 (-2%) realized −$7,056 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate79%107W / 29L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,081per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,054now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days−$381
14 days+$238
30 days+$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7,205
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.4% -16.2% 75% 8% -11.9%
≤30d 28 -2.8% -12.1% 71% 25% -8.6%
≤90d 34 -5.1% -14.1% 68% 21% -13.9%
all 136 -9.5% -18.1% 79% 8% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 8% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 2% -20.2%
15% -33.1% 2% -27.9%
20% -39.6% 1% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,996) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$468 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$1,054
Realized−$7,056
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses107 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)136 / 139
History coverage149d
Avg bet$2,081
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 95¢ 99¢ $620 $647 +$27 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? No 77¢ 84¢ $231 $250 +$20 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? No 93¢ 92¢ $157 $156 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $477 +$23 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $883 +$106 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,005 +$92 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $399 −$208 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,558 +$127 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,270 +$65 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,806 +$188 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,400 +$66 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,819 −$1,002 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $70 −$33 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,890 +$93 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,900 +$100 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $2,764 +$277 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $1,562 −$362 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $950 +$50 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,326 +$174 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $64 −$13 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,537 +$466 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,121 +$79 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $929 +$71 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,697 −$450 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $900 +$100 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $410 −$134 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $888 +$112 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1,752 +$248 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $872 +$148 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $680 +$20 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $777 −$47 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $3,296 −$2,069 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $910 +$90 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 27? Mar 26 $1,720 −$480 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $390 −$68 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $2,650 +$104 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 20? Mar 23 $349 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $835 +$64 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $2,200 −$950 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Feb 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 13 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Feb 13 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Feb 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Feb 13 $858 −$845 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Feb 13 $204 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Feb 13 $3,979 −$3,953 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Feb 13 $481 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 13 $4,106 +$192 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Feb 13 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 12 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 12 $360 +$232 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 12 $594 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $158 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $499 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $407 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $167 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $65 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $8 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $5 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $4 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $12 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $8 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $8 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $8 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $8 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $4 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $149 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $989 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $425 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $458 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1,065 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 40¢ $192 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $515 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $500 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $329 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $19 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $19 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $19 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $19 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $19 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $19 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 79¢ $0 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,053.74 · official $1,053.74 (match) · 1486 history records