Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CD 0xcd3c…62bb crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-1%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate82%27W / 6L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$160
sports 13% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +6.2% -3.9% 82% 61% -7.7%
≤30d 33 +6.2% -3.9% 82% 61% -7.7%
≤90d 33 +6.2% -3.9% 82% 61% -7.7%
all 33 +6.2% -3.9% 82% 61% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 61% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 36% -16.5%
15% -21.5% 18% -24.6%
20% -29.2% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$135 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses27 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $224 −$224 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $96 −$96 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $81 +$17 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$15 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $62 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $192 +$29 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $188 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $180 +$5 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $176 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $128 +$47 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$30 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $57 +$43 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $37 +$18 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $397 +$37 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $359 +$38 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $260 +$99 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $232 +$29 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $194 +$37 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $166 +$29 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $146 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $112 +$37 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $94 +$19 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $72 +$22 +31%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 23 $365 −$365 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $66 +$5 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $127 +$238 +188%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $71 +$56 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $64 +$6 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $53 +$12 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $96 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $81 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $63 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $62 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $70 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $224 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $192 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $188 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $180 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $176 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $128 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $57 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $54 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $37 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $397 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $359 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $260 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $232 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $194 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $166 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $146 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $112 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $94 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $72 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $66 4h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Alex Molcan 67¢ $365 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin SELL Andrea Guerrieri 100¢ $365 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records