Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd3a…e735 world 31 markets active 2d ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$5
other 18% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
politics 4% $0
culture 4% $0
sports 3% $0
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.3% -8.3% 43% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 9 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 9 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 0% -8.3%
all 31 -5.2% -14.2% 55% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -9.1%
10% -22.4% 0% -17.8%
15% -29.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage462d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $24 −$1 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $86 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $47 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $39 +$4 +10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $13 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? May 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $9 $0 +5%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 19 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $12 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 23 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 42h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $46 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $46 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $39 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $43 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $43 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $43 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $41 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $42 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $42 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $13 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $13 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $19 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 7d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $10 355d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY No 98¢ $2 357d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records