Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd36…99bc world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 29L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$7
politics 20% $0
other 15% $0
sports 10% $0
finance 8% −$1
tech 4% −$1
culture 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 11% -8.0%
≤90d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 11% -8.0%
all 38 -1.3% -10.7% 24% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.1%
10% -19.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage298d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $49 +$6 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $2 $0 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $92 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $43 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $43 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 28 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $63 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 26 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $23 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 25 $4 $0 -12%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 25 $2 $0 -25%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 25 $2 $0 +8%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 24 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $50 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $56 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $56 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $56 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $56 15h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $51 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $7 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $43 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $2 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 43¢ $3 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 43¢ $7 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 43¢ $23 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 43¢ $22 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $49 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $9 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $36 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $26 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $17 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $47 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $48 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $34 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.50 · official $49.50 (match) · 147 history records