Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd33…cf51 crypto 881 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,998 (-7%) realized −$11,980 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate88%769W / 108L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4,448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$5,971
politics 25% −$224
world 12% +$575
other 5% +$127
sports 1% +$687
finance 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -29.7% -36.4% 51% 13% -10.6%
≤30d 83 -29.3% -36.0% 52% 13% -10.6%
≤90d 607 -1.6% -11.0% 86% 42% -12.3%
all 877 -0.9% -10.3% 88% 40% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 40% -12.3%
10% -18.9% 8% -20.7%
15% -26.8% 2% -28.4%
20% -33.9% 1% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$105 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$4,448
Realized−$11,980
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses769 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)877 / 881
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$183
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 877 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $4,000 $3,982 −$18 (-0%)
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $252 $254 +$1 (+0%)
Will Paloma Valencia win less than 10% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $504 −$490 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$40 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $6,425 +$386 +6%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $693 −$248 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $477 +$35 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $95 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,990 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $603 +$61 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$146 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $109 −$109 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $114 −$114 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $223 −$223 -100%
Will Claude Mythos not be released by June 30? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $811 +$38 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $378 +$22 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $175 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2,000 37m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2,000 43m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1,177 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $132 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $88 2h
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 2h
Will Paloma Valencia win less than 10% of votes in the first round of BUY Yes 100¢ $119 2h
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? BUY Yes 100¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $204 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $112 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $189 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,448.20 · official $4,448.20 (match) · 3500 history records