Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcd32…ff6f other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,401 (-2%) realized −$1,401 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate52%33W / 30L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,169per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$98
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$277
politics 28% −$1,798
crypto 7% +$51
sports 2% +$3
tech 0% −$37
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 63 -10.3% -18.9% 52% 19% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 19% -11.4%
10% -26.6% 16% -19.9%
15% -33.7% 10% -27.6%
20% -40.2% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,287) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$116 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,401
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage595d
Avg bet$1,169
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $99 −$98 -99%
Will the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be bet Feb 27 $586 −$586 -100%
Will the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be les Feb 27 $200 −$197 -99%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 26 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 26 $20 −$2 -10%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26? Feb 26 $761 +$24 +3%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 26 $194 +$51 +26%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $300 −$13 -4%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 25 $266 +$24 +9%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $50 −$31 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 25 $35 +$9 +26%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $1,839 +$11 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get 40 million or more views on day 3? Feb 23 $87 −$4 -5%
Pistons vs. Knicks Feb 20 $1,620 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Feb 18 $20 +$7 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $926 −$9 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 17 $9 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 17 $15 +$10 +70%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $16 mi Feb 16 $632 +$21 +3%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Feb 16 $550 +$483 +88%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 mi Feb 16 $650 −$23 -4%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 16 $461 −$67 -14%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 25 $451 −$451 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Nov 25 $375 −$375 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $4,991 +$25 +0%
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $3,174 +$357 +11%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $115 −$11 -9%
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $3,546 +$11 +0%
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 20 $2,360 −$5 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 19 $12,119 −$174 -1%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 18 $915 +$10 +1%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 17 $1,080 +$73 +7%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $3,703 +$7 +0%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 13 $5,426 +$21 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 13 $6,614 +$103 +2%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 11 $1,287 −$1,174 -91%
Will Phantom launch a token in 2025? Nov 10 $1,455 +$2 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 10 $3,428 +$5 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Nov 09 $542 −$11 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Nov 08 $32 +$23 +71%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1 Nov 08 $948 +$227 +24%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Nov 08 $2,311 +$102 +4%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20? Nov 05 $4,315 +$18 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $2,829 +$37 +1%
Over 80% "For" on the Jupiter burn proposal? Nov 03 $699 +$4 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Nov 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Nov 01 $300 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $99 1h
Will the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be bet BUY Yes 86¢ $3 116d
Will the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be les SELL Yes 1¢ $3 116d
Will the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be bet BUY Yes 98¢ $283 116d
Will the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be bet BUY Yes 88¢ $300 116d
Will the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be les BUY Yes 70¢ $200 116d
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 117d
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? SELL No 27¢ $18 117d
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 117d
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? BUY No 30¢ $20 117d
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26? BUY Yes 97¢ $245 117d
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26? BUY Yes 97¢ $516 117d
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $194 117d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? SELL No 81¢ $287 117d
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? SELL No 70¢ $91 117d
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? SELL No 70¢ $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $290 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $266 118d
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $50 118d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY No 85¢ $300 118d
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? BUY No 69¢ $100 118d
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 5¢ $19 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $35 118d
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 118d
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? SELL No 99¢ $754 118d
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? BUY No 98¢ $746 119d
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? SELL No 98¢ $192 119d
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? BUY No 97¢ $190 119d
Will MrBeast's next video get 40 million or more views on day 3? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 120d
Will MrBeast's next video get 40 million or more views on day 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 504 history records