Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CD 0xcd30…fc9b crypto 899 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$767 (+1%) realized +$930 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate84%751W / 146L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$871
14 days+$934
30 days+$677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$51
sports 6% +$522
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -0.6% -10.1% 96% 4% -3.0%
≤30d 889 -3.0% -12.3% 84% 7% -8.4%
≤90d 889 -3.0% -12.3% 84% 7% -8.4%
all 897 -3.4% -12.6% 84% 8% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 8% -8.5%
10% -20.9% 6% -17.2%
15% -28.6% 4% -25.2%
20% -35.6% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized+$930
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses751 / 146
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)897 / 899
History coverage126d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 897 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 32¢ $488 $325 −$163 (-33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $98 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $92 +$9 +10%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $579 −$570 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $568 +$552 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $95 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $77 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $495 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $69 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $91 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $98 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $99 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $96 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $95 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $72 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.22 · official $339.22 (match) · 2928 history records